Feb 27, 2013; Fort Worth, TX, USA; Oklahoma State Cowboys guard Marcus Smart (33) passes against TCU Horned Frogs guard Chris Zurcher (25) during the second half at the Daniel-Meyer Coliseum. Oklahoma State Cowboys won 64-47. Mandatory Credit: Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports

Even if the Cleveland Cavaliers had the No. 1 overall pick, there was no way they would have selected Oklahoma State point guard Marcus Smart with their draft pick. Considering he plays the same position as Kyrie Irving, choosing Smart at the top of the draft would have been a head-scratching move on the part of general manager Chris Grant and his staff.

But Smart, who this week announced that he would be returning to Stillwater for his sophomore season, still has a major impact on the Cavaliers drafting strategy. With Smart (a guaranteed top-3 pick) out of the draft, that bumps everyone below him (namely Georgetown small forward Otto Porter) up a spot. And thus, it could be harder for the Cavaliers to nag the player they want come June 27.

Let’s take a look at the latest Big Board from Sports Illustrated’s Chris Mannix – which included Smart.

1. Nerlens Noel, PF/C, Kentucky

2. Ben McLemore, G, Kansas

3. Marcus Smart, PG/SG, Oklahoma State

4. Anthony Bennett, SF/PF, UNLV

5. Trey Burke, G, Michigan

6. Otto Porter, SF, Georgetown

7. Victor Oladipo, G, Indiana

8. Shabazz Muhammad, SG, UCLA
9. Cody Zeller, PF/C, Indiana

10. Alex Len, C, Maryland

Out of those 10 ex-student athletes, only three (Noel, Bennett and Porter) fit right into what the Cavaliers want to do with their team. Other players, like McLemore or Oladipo, fill a position that the Cavaliers already are stocked up on.

This becomes even more of a problem now. As it stands now, the Cavaliers hold a 15.6 percent chance of landing the top pick in the draft – only behind the Bobcats and Magic for worse records. However, since the NBA uses a lottery method instead of a standard “worst team drafts first” method, it’s up in the air as to where the Cavaliers will actually pick in the draft this year. It’s all but certain that they will draft in the top six, but let’s say the Cavaliers end up at six. In all likelihood, Noel, Bennett and Porter will be off the board. Porter, who in some mock drafts had fallen down to six, is all but certain to be selected before that pick because of Smart’s absence from this draft.

At that point, it’s hard to see whom the Cavaliers could take at that selection that could come in right away and make an instant, significant impact. Cody Zeller? No thank you to the twin Zellers as the building blocks for the front line. Alex Len? I’ll pass. Shabazz Muhammad? I’m not convinced that he is worth the risk.

The point is this: Smart deciding to go back to school is one of the worst things that could have happened to the Cavaliers. Everyone rated below him on team’s big boards are going to be pushed up and taken higher. If the Cavaliers get a top three pick, it will all work out in their favor and they can get one of their guys. But if not, and they end up with a later pick thanks to an unlucky bounce of a lottery ball, then it could get interesting.

Apr 2, 2013; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Lakers shooting guard Kobe Bryant (24) reacts in the second half of the game against the Dallas Mavericks at the Staples Center. Lakers won 101-81. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

For Cleveland Cavaliers, the end of the season cannot come soon enough. With how putrid the team has team has played as of late, it is completely understandable. The Cavaliers are the third-worst team in the NBA, and injuries to Kyrie Irving, Anderson Varejao and Dion Waiters have made this team incredibly hard to watch.

And as you may know, the Los Angeles Lakers are the unofficial Cleveland sports franchise, as they try to lock down the eighth seed in the Western Conference. If they can make the playoffs, the Cavaliers will receive their first-round draft pick.

Even though that potential first-round draft pick will be outside of the lottery, it’s a very valuable pick. That pick makes the Cavaliers first pick (which is more than likely to be in the Top 5) even more valuable.

This is for several reasons. First off, look at the prospects likely to available at the top of the draft: Nerlens Noel, Otto Porter, Victor Oladipo and Ben McLemore. These players are unquestionably the cream of the crop in this year’s class, but I have my doubts that any one of them is a franchise changing talent. There is clear risk with each and every one of them.

This is especially true with Noel, who is probably the player with the highest upside in the entire draft due to his ability to defend the paint. But here’s the catch: he’s coming off major knee surgery and it’s not clear when he will be able to play again.

Let’s say the Lakers fail to make the playoffs and the Cavaliers are in a position to draft Noel. I am already on record as saying I pass on the Kentucky product for a variety of reasons, but without that second pick as a fallback, it’s a huge risk to take Noel – but general manager Chris Grant might have to.

And that’s the whole problem with not having that fallback plan. Only having that first pick will make this draft a complete hit or miss. That player selected will have a large amount of pressure on their shoulders to develop quickly alongside Irving and become a key player on this team. That player will be immediately viewed as a member of the rotation and be counted upon to take the Cavaliers to the next level.

And let’s say that the pick is after Noel and Porter are off the board. No other player that high in the draft is a perfect fit for this team like those do are. Oladipo, for example,  is fantastic talent, but does he bring anything to the Cavaliers that does not already exist? The same goes for McLemore. And with that point, you’d have to consider trading down – but who would really consider that? And what team is going to trade up a few spots to take player that is not going to turn around their franchise?

But imagine if that second pick is there and the Lakers are indeed in the playoffs. A pick where the Cavaliers select Noel is less of a risk because another player could soften the blow if the Kentucky product doesn’t work out. It also adds two talented players – regardless of positions – to a team that desperately needs talent. Players like Daniel “Boobie” Gibson and Luke Walton are fine to fill roster space on a low-level team, but as the Cavaliers continue to march toward improvement, they aren’t going to cut it.

That’s why this second pick means so much to the Cavaliers. With it, they will have the flexibility to take a chance on a player and, at the very worst, will add two young players they like. A perfect example is last year’s draft, where Waiters and Tyler Zeller were both selected in the first round. While both have struggled at times, they have shown improvement and flashed real potential at times. That’s what the Cavaliers need again come this June.

But if the Lakers do fall short, it’s going to get interesting. Who to take becomes cloudier than ever with so many holes to fill. There is not a player on the board that is a slam-dunk pick. There is no insurance policy – it’s all or nothing.

And that’s why, if you are a Cavaliers fan, you are now a Kobe Bryant fan. Replace the Wine and Gold with the Purple and Yellow for these next few weeks. Any game they win is really a win for Cleveland – and their draft strategy.

Jan 15, 2013; Lexington, KY, USA; Kentucky Wildcats forward Nerlens Noel (3) practices before the game against the Tennessee Volunteers at Rupp Arena. Kentucky defeated Tennessee 75-65. Mandatory Credit: Mark Zerof-USA TODAY Sports

Not too long ago if you told me that the Cleveland Cavaliers would be in the position to draft Kentucky center Nerlens Noel, I would have said there was no way. The freshman sensation was, at a time, the consensus No. 1 prospect in the upcoming NBA draft. With shot blocking ability, an improving offensive game and a great haircut, Noel was seen as the kind of player you could make a long-term staple of your franchise.

And just picture a Cavaliers squad with Noel. Long term, a pick for Noel meant that a young core of Kyrie Irving, Dion Waiters and Noel had the Cavaliers on the fast track to contention. It’s rare you see three young players of that caliber on one team. Who was the last team to get three talented players like that you ask? The Oklahoma City Thunder.

Now, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden overall had more talent than the potential Cleveland “Big Three” mentioned above. The problem was all three of those players need the ball a lot in order to succeed. Thus, it was a good idea to send Harden on his way to Houston and make the Thunder a two man wrecking crew.

But with the Irving, Waiters and Noel trio, you don’t have those issues. Sure Waiters and Irving both are at their best with the ball, but Noel is not that kind of player.

Also, picture a starting lineup of Irving, Waiters, someone not named Alonzo Gee, Tristan Thompson and Noel in three years or so. That’s a lineup, in theory, that could be a real threat in the East.

But here’s the Catch-22: Noel, as you may know, suffered a gruesome ACL tear against the Florida Gators in early February. He had his surgery not too long ago and, in this day and age, an ACL injury isn’t the end of the world in the sport of basketball. Athletes like Adrian Petersson have come back and been better than ever. And in the NBA, Chicago Bulls point guard Derrick Rose appears ready to come back soon from his own ACL injury.

And this is where it gets interesting: After a quick surge, the Cavaliers are back in bottom of the league with a record of 22-48. At this moment, the Wine and Gold have a 15.6 percent chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick in the NBA Draft – with the Orlando Magic (19.9 percent) and Charlotte Bobcats (25 percent) having better odds.  So, after a long stretch of time, it appears the Cavaliers are right back in the thick of it when it comes to selecting at the top of the draft. And let’s say they do end up at that pick and have a chance to take Noel – they have to do it right?

Wrong. And here’s why.

First off, let me say that I am operating under the assumption that Marresse Speights will not be a Cavalier next year. And I am indeed interested in drafting a young big man. In a way, this makes this choice even easier since I see a lot of value in this draft.

Let us remember that Anderson Varejao will be making his return next season. The Brazilian big man does have a history of injuries, but when on the court, few are better. He’s a double-double machine who only gets better each season, and a frontcourt of Varejao and Thompson could be insanely productive. With Tyler Zeller also likely coming back, that means you already have three big men committed. Let them grow and let’s truly find out what we have there.

Also, there are prospects in this draft – namely Otto Porter from Georgetown, Ben McLemore from Kansas and Victor Oladipo from Indiana that strike me as good fits on this Cavaliers team. Porter would fill a huge need at small forward, McLemore could pair with Waiters to form a dangerous combination, while Waiters’ and Oladipo’s contrasting styles make them a good fit to share minutes. And in all likelihood, the Cavaliers will be able to pick when one of those players are available.

And lastly, there are some big men out there available for picking later in the draft – especially if the Los Angeles Lakers make the playoffs and give up their first round draft pick to the Wine and Gold. Kansas’s Jeff Withey would provide toughness and shot blocking that this franchise currently does not have. Akron’s Zeke Marshall provides the same and likely will be available come the Cavaliers second round pick. And Gonzaga’s Kelly Olynyk provides the same and likely would be available when the Cavaliers select for the second time in the first round.

Here is my point: Taking Noel could work out phenomenally and he could develop into a star. He certainty is more likely to than any other frontcourt prospect that I mentioned. But why draft him, a player who may miss part of next year, when there is value later down the board?

At the first pick, I take Porter or Oladipo, taking a veteran college player who also has room to grow. Assuming the Lakers make the playoffs (and I think they will), I zone in on Olynyk and even dangle a second rounder in order to nab him. Withey becomes the safety plan, with Marshall being the final option in round two.

Anyway you look at it, it looks as if the Cavaliers will be able to add at least one talented rookie to a roster that already has good young talent. But for my last dollar, I pass on the player many thought of (and still do) as the No. 1 prospect. Take a look at other guys and get big men later. Remember that Varejao is on his way back and that there is still room for Tyler Zeller to grow.

So, if I’m the Cavaliers, I’m saying no to Noel.